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  • 2024-09-10
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ECB Split: Divergent Views on 50bps Rate Cut Emerge

The Governor of the Central Bank of Latvia and a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, Martins Kazaks, assessed the possibility of a significant interest rate cut of half a percentage point in December on Thursday.

When asked about his views on a 50 basis point interest rate cut at the next European Central Bank meeting, he stated, "Everything should be on the table." "But we will discuss it in December."

This central bank governor, who is not typically known for dovish views, added: "As I said, we will discuss it in early January and at every meeting to approach the 2% inflation target."

Previously, the European Central Bank announced its first consecutive interest rate cuts in 13 years at its October meeting. The day before, the Governor of the Bank of Portugal, Mario Centeno, also made similar remarks.

Centeno said on Wednesday: "In fact, the inflation rate in September was very low, far below our expectations." Centeno is a dovish member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council. Doves tend to favor low interest rates to promote economic growth, while hawks are more concerned about inflation and its impact on society.

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"We need to incorporate this into our narrative," Centeno said when discussing the recent inflation data. "After that, we need to look at the upcoming data to see the trends in the data we have been observing, and of course, a 50 basis point cut is something to consider because we are still data-dependent, and the data we are receiving also points in that direction."

The European Central Bank's move earlier this month was the central bank's third 25 basis point interest rate cut this year. The market has fully digested this move after policymakers indicated reduced inflation risks and weakened growth prospects.

Kazaks emphasized that the bank "is still within a fairly tight constraint range." "Therefore, easing interest rate pressure is certainly something we need to do, and that is what we will do. But of course, you know, we need to look at the data," he added.

The eurozone's September inflation rate was recently revised to 1.7%, lower than the previously official estimate of 1.8%. The inflation rate in August was 2.2%.

September marked the first time since June 2021 that eurozone inflation fell below the European Central Bank's 2% target, signaling the end of a multi-year period of excessively rapid price growth and reinforcing expectations for further rate cuts in the short term.However, Belgian central bank governor and member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, Pierre Wunsch, stated that a rate cut of 50 basis points is only necessary when economic data significantly weakens.

Wunsch pointed out that it is too early to consider a half percentage point rate cut in December. He mentioned that although monetary market trading has repeatedly discussed the possibility of a rate cut, policymakers need to debate the pace and extent of easing policies. Wunsch, one of the more hawkish officials at the European Central Bank, said during a speech at the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting in Washington that the slowdown in consumer price growth should not be exaggerated.

"A 50-point increase would be a significant increase, so I believe it is only reasonable when we have data, that is, inflation will decrease. But it is also possible that GDP growth is in the wrong direction, which is not what we are seeing today," he said on Thursday.

"I have not ruled out any possibilities," he added, "but we have started lowering rates early. I think it would be good if we could...gradually, without causing unnecessary fluctuations in the market."

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