The automotive landscape is undergoing a profound transformation as advancements in smart technology and artificial intelligence (AI) continue to redefine consumer expectationsBy 2025, the rise of intelligent vehicles – particularly that enhance autonomous driving capabilities – is anticipated to be a significant milestone in the industryThe year is projected to be pivotal for autonomous driving chip manufacturers, particularly as self-developed chips emerge as game-changers in this rapidly evolving space.
Estimates suggest that new car sales equipped with the Navigation on Autopilot (NOA) feature could soar to five million units by 2025, which would translate to a penetration rate exceeding 20%. This projection is not merely a statistical figure but an indicator of shifting consumer behaviour towards automated driving solutionsFurther projections for 2026 suggest an impressive growth of 60 to 100% in new car sales with the NOA capability compared to 2025, indicating a rapidly growing market eager to embrace smart driving technologies.
A critical component of this growth is expected to come from urban NOA solutions, which are anticipated to achieve sales upward of three million units by 2025 – a substantial increase from prior estimates for 2024. This growth will elevate the penetration rate of urban NOA-equipped vehicles to between 10% and 15% of total new passenger car sales, reflecting consumer trendiness in urban locations for smart vehicles.
Several key factors will drive the surge in urban NOA adoption
Firstly, established automotive manufacturers such as Huawei, Li Auto, Xpeng Motors, NIO, and even Xiaomi are expected to significantly boost their sales through enhanced vehicle offerings equipped with advanced smart driving featuresMoreover, major players are likely to introduce end-to-end models that incorporate ‘parking to parking’ functionalities, allowing consumers to experience the convenience and efficiency of high-level autonomous driving.
In a notable statement from BYD's chairman, Wang Chuanfu, it was revealed at the 2024 Dream Day event that the company will commence offering advanced smart driving systems as options for vehicles priced over 200,000 yuanAdditionally, models priced above 300,000 yuan may see these features standardised, further enhancing accessibility and appeal to a broader range of consumers.
The projected penetration of urban NOA technology is anticipated to reach a tipping point in the second half of the upcoming year, transitioning from early adopters to a more mainstream adoption phase
- Nvidia, TSMC Mull US AI Chip Production
- Bitcoin Reaches New Heights
- Dollar Rises Despite $36 Trillion US Debt
- China's Innovative Drugs Go Global
- Challenges and Responses in Tongwei's Solar Business
The potential entry of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system into the Chinese market could greatly enhance public acceptance and familiarity with urban driving features.
In terms of growth in high-speed NOA-equipped vehicles, estimates indicate that sales might reach roughly 200,000 units by 2025, notably higher than the 80,000 units anticipated in 2024. BYD is poised to contribute significantly to this rise, with predictions suggesting that various models priced above 200,000 yuan will be equipped with high-performance features like DiPilot 100 and DiPilot 300, catering to both highway and urban driving environmentsLower-tier models will also potentially offer these features, welcoming more consumers into the smart driving arena.
In addition, Huawei's pure-vision solution is expected to yield incremental improvements to the overall numerical figureWith the ambitious rollout of its ADS SE version, which implements pure visual technology allowing for high-speed navigation functionalities, Huawei aims to expand its automotive partnerships
As such, vehicles starting from prices as low as 174,000 yuan will also be equipped with these enhancements, welcoming a diverse range of new customers.
A major evolution in smart driving technology includes an expected upgrade in autonomous driving chips, anticipated to become a crucial determinant in vehicle capabilitiesAs mainstream chip manufacturers launch new products, 2025 is set to witness a significant shift in the autonomous driving chip landscapeIt is expected that BYD will lead this growth trajectory, primarily by leveraging NVIDIA’s Orin N chip, renowned for its impressive processing power of 84TOPs (trillion operations per second).
As part of the high-speed navigation scheme, competitors like Horizon’s J6E and M chips, which offer slightly varying processing capacities, are also expected to enter the market alongside premier vehicle manufacturers like SAIC, Volkswagen, and others
For urban navigation schemes, NVIDIA's Orin X will maintain its dominance, with increasing prevalence in modelsHowever, it is noteworthy that the demand for computational power to execute effective urban navigation may escalate, requiring manufacturers to keep pace with advanced computing technology like NVIDIA Thor and Horizon’s innovative products.
Furthermore, the shift toward self-developed chips is likely to be a defining variable in the industry, with leading Chinese smart driving firms embracing integrated software and hardware developmentCompanies like NIO, Xpeng Motors, BYD, and others have publicly announced their intentions and plans to create proprietary chip technology, indicating a robust future for homegrown chips within the world of smart vehicles.
The developmental timeline for an individual chip is approximately three years, meaning that plans initiated now will likely bear fruit by 2025. Such initiatives promise to allow greater operational efficiency, yielding higher computational power tailored to specific vehicle needs, thus generating industry differentiation based on proprietary chip solutions.
Another intriguing aspect of this revolution in smart vehicle technology is the role of Lidar in future applications
The enhancements in urban navigation are poised to lead to a surge in Lidar sales, breaking the 2.5 million-unit barrier by 2025. Compared to estimates for 2024, which stand at around 1.5 million, the anticipation reflects technological improvements and heightened demand for sensors in autonomous vehicles.
Companies like Hesai Technology and others are set to see significant increases in revenue from their Lidar offerings, projecting vast improvements in unit sales figures as they capture a larger market share thanks to exclusive partnerships and competitive pricing strategiesBy streamlining production methods, companies aim to bring Lidar products to the price range of about 1,000 yuan, making the technology more accessible for mass-market vehicles, thereby fostering widespread adoption.
As these autonomous driving systems and their related technologies gain traction, the promising intersection of AI, smart driving features, and affordability may redefine consumer expectations, driving the proliferation of intelligent vehicles